Caught Between AI Powers: Can ASEAN Stay Strategically Independent?

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ASEAN AI
Source: Magnific.com

As artificial intelligence becomes increasingly tied to infrastructure, investment and national competitiveness, Southeast Asia faces a strategic question: how much control can ASEAN retain over the systems that will power its AI economy?

Data centres, power networks, cloud and computing capacity, semiconductor supply chains and cross-border connectivity are becoming critical foundations of AI. With strong digital demand and growing investor interest, Southeast Asia is emerging as an important arena in the global technology competition.

The question is not simply how quickly ASEAN adopts AI. It is whether the region can preserve room to choose as its digital infrastructure becomes increasingly connected to competing global technology ecosystems.

AI Competition Becomes a Regional Question

Competition between the United States and China now extends beyond AI models to semiconductors, cloud computing, data centres, telecommunications networks and digital platforms.

For ASEAN, this creates both opportunities and challenges. International technology providers bring capital, expertise and infrastructure that would take years to develop locally. But heavy reliance on a single provider or ecosystem could leave countries with fewer options in areas such as supply-chain resilience, data governance and technology policy.

The issue, therefore, is not dependence itself-few economies are fully self-sufficient. The greater concern is dependence without alternatives.

This was reflected at M360 ASEAN 2026, held in Kuala Lumpur on Sept 9 and 10, where discussions examined regional strategy amid a shifting global order, as well as cooperation on AI and digital integration.

For ASEAN, diversification may offer a more practical path than disengagement. Spreading sources of capital, technology and expertise could help countries avoid being locked into one ecosystem while still benefiting from global investment.

But diversification comes at a cost. Multiple systems and standards can increase expenses and slow deployment, creating a difficult balance between resilience and efficiency.

Trust Is Part of the Digital Foundation

Technology infrastructure alone will not determine whether AI delivers economic benefits. Public and business trust will matter just as much.

M360 ASEAN 2026’s Digital Trust Summit examined digital identity, scams, cybersecurity and resilient networks. GSMA research released at the event found that 45% of reported scam cases across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam remained unresolved.

As AI makes phishing, deepfakes, voice cloning and digital impersonation more sophisticated, stronger identity verification, authentication and information-sharing systems are becoming increasingly important.

Without trust, consumers may hesitate to use digital services while businesses may become more cautious about sharing data, weakening the potential gains from AI and digitalisation.

Can ASEAN Create More Room to Choose?

Regional integration could give ASEAN greater leverage.

Individually, member states have limited bargaining power when dealing with major technology companies and global powers. Collectively, ASEAN represents a large and growing digital market.

The conclusion of negotiations on the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) in May 2026 is a significant step. The agreement aims to support greater interoperability, regulatory alignment and trusted cross-border data flows.

But concluding negotiations is only the beginning. Its impact will depend on ratification and implementation across countries with different levels of digital maturity and regulatory approaches.

ASEAN is also unlikely to become technologically independent from the major powers – nor does it need to.

Its more realistic goal is to maintain enough infrastructure, skills, regional cooperation and policy flexibility to avoid having only one viable technological path.

For ASEAN, strategic independence may therefore not mean choosing between Washington and Beijing. It may mean keeping both doors open – while ensuring the region retains enough capacity to decide which technologies, partnerships and systems best serve its own interests.

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